The Summary:
CPMs and CPCs dropped across the board as brands finally wisen up and pull back their spend in preparation for the holidays. The awareness has been set and now people are holding back budgets in October. Unfortunately, we're still seeing some of the highest ad prices of the year even with this slight pullback.
CACs improved as well, but we do not suspect them to begin dropping consistently until the third week of October. Historically this is the pattern. This bounce, and any bounce you may see in your own accounts, is likely to begin as a trend in earnest in a few weeks. Steady!
Some customer spending is already happening, as we can see improvements in revenue and customer acquisition across all brands. Whether or not this is the beginning of the holiday trend depends specifically on your brand. Look internally - has buying momentum begin for your brand already? It may be time to spend already to capitalize on the momentum.
The Takeaway:
We're going to make a bold prediction: Meta CACs will drop continuously from the third week of October all the way to Black Friday. We've been studying previous years' data and this years trends. All signs point to relief on the horizon. On a holistic level, we don't think that MER will get that much more efficient because so many brands dump crazy money on the pile during this peak buying season. But if you're already seeing your highest CACs of the year, we think a break is coming. Keep a close eye on your CACs over the next week and be sure to pull the trigger on increased budget as you see these CACs start to drop.
Has your customer purchase momentum started yet? Everybody has a different story. Sometimes the natural "uptick" in purchases that your brand sees every holiday season happen because of your ads, your offers, whatever. Sometimes they happen naturally for any number of reason. Whatever the cause, is it time to capitalize on that momentum? Go look at your customer cohorts from last year. When were the holiday cohorts the most valuable? When did your CACs begin dropping? You want to nail the balance and increase your spend right as customer buying momentum begins to build. We believe in you.
Final advice: everything is about to change. Batten down the hatches. We are stepping into a watershed moment in the post-COVID history of BFCM. This has been one of ecommerce's toughest years in a while, and even the biggest brands are getting desperate. Remember the advice we've shared in previous issues. Steady hands and cooler heads prevail. Many brands will be spending obscene amounts, running deeper discounts than ever, moving inventory more desperately than ever. That's not what we're about here. You deserve a profitable Black Friday, no matter how badly other people think it's gonna go.
Some helpful links and news we found:
β οΈ Is Slack going to die? A view from the top and a reminder to get outside your bubble.
π 21% of searches on TikTok are for commercial keywords? Maybe TikTok is coming for Amazon, Google AND Meta. Battle royale!!!
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Elon laid off half of X's election integrity staff. π
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π What the Europeans can teach us about building consumer brands. We know you'll hate this take, but we love 9 Operators for this.
π Your TikTok "gifting" ads suck - here's how to make them better. RANT INCOMING FROM THE AUTHOR: Before you come at me like "oh Bryan you don't know, our ads are good" Dude. I've seen your ads. Y'all got a long way to go. I'm seeing brands put $100k behind ads that shouldn't even be on the internet in the first place. Please let Savannah Sanchez take the wheel and stop putting AI-generated crap in my FYP. xoxo
π Why Facebook, Google and Amazon are embracing media mix modeling. Because it works? But be careful who you trust! You can trust us.
Some job openings we like (from our network):
π± Digital Marketing Specialist (Google) - Adaptive Health: a hybrid role in NC for a cool supplement brand.
π± Facebook Media Buyer - Adaptive Health: another hybrid role at Adaptive!
π΅οΈ Account Manager (Digital) - Ad Pros: a remote gig with some good friends of ours.
π΅οΈ Native Ads / Advertorial Copywriter - Ad Pros: we love content.
Looking forward:
Our new MMM+ product is still open for early access. Get on the cutting edge of media mix modeling before everybody else figures it out. Sign up at the link.