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In this issue: Looking at year-over-year data in the lead up to BFCM. Remember: comparison is the thief of joy. 

Who am I kidding? Read 'em and weep! 📈

The charts above demonstrate the same six days leading up to BFCM this year as compared to the same days in 2024, the Tuesday before to the Monday of the BFCM week. 

Save this and revisit it after the big week. We'll publish these year over year numbers a few times through the coming weeks, including over BFCM proper.

The results demonstrate what we’ve been saying in this newsletter for months: it’s a different world out there for growth marketers. And it’s time we adapt. 

Understanding year over year 

Before we get into this, a note on year-over-year analyses. I’m a trained data scientist, it’s how I started my career. When COVID-19 happened, data scientists I knew joked that “every forecasting dataset is broken forever” thanks to the extreme macroeconomic disruptions the pandemic caused. 

Year over year data was disrupted permanently by a massive cultural and financial shift. The predictable patterns of seasonality we see, even in this Northbeam data, have a clear before and after COVID. 

COVID-19 lockdowns were a massive boon for ecommerce marketers, and every year that’s passed since then, many advertisers have reported worse and worse BFCM performance, especially after iOS 14.5 in 2021. 

As you analyze your own performance year over year, remember what happened last year. Last BFCM was an election season, for example, and ad auctions were flooded with political spending right up to election day. 

When looking at year over year data, it’s important to understand that we live in a radically changed world. Axon has arrived and disrupted everything. CTV is taking off. TikTok Shop is quietly minting new millionaires every day. Algorithmic updates happen every month, it feels like (Andromeda, Axon Prospecting.)

Every good marketer uses multiple analyses. Use year over year, but also month over month, and day by day. 

Now, enough of my soapbox. What happened year over year?

High-level patterns 

Meta dominates budget share this year, no surprise. That didn’t shift much. Risk-averse BFCM marketers always consolidate spend to Meta/Google through this time period, simply because they feel as though that’s what works. ROAS is basically flat YoY. 

This dataset suggests that pattern is evolving, though. Axon, TikTok, and Snap all gained increased spend share YoY, indicative of the trend of diversification beyond Meta that we’ve seen all year. 

Google posted moderate losses in CTR and ROAS, with a slight drop in conversions and a CAC close to flat. Research shows that Google is losing the battle in search, with younger people preferring to search on TikTok or YouTube first instead. I think this YoY data supports that claim to a degree. 

TikTok and YouTube both see much lower CPMs/CPCs, but TikTok saw a pretty steep decline in efficiency. CTR and CvR are down, but ROAS is looking healthy YoY. We’ve been seeing TikTok succeed in driving conversions this year, and this chart supports that trend. 

Axon???

Axon by Applovin remains interesting. CPM has surged YoY… but so has ROAS and CTR. CAC has dropped as well. Axon just operates differently – the CPMs may be high, but so is the ROAS. 

Keep an eye on your new visitor and new customer metrics to truly understand where Axon fits in your funnel. This is our most exciting ad platform for BFCM right now.

ROAS adventures

ROAS is up year over year almost everywhere, notably Axon. The longer and cheaper consideration cycle we’ve had through September to now has done wonders on ad efficiency, since this year we aren’t competing with political spend. 

If you see ROAS increases year over year, especially new customer, you can trust that part of that is coming from just a cheaper ad environment. 

Budgets by channel 

It’s remarkable that spend across channels are basically the same year over year, with notable increases in share for TikTok and Axon. 

It goes to show that even with major swings in performance, advertisers haven’t quite adjusted their spend behaviors beyond the norm right now. There could be serious opportunities in being a first mover, especially on Axon and CTV platforms like Vibe and MNTN. 

But considering BFCM is almost here, this year just trust your gut and your data. Happy hunting! 

🚨 JOB: Head of Growth @ Javvy Coffee: join the best marketers in the game, $5m budget, and freedom to make infinite scale happen. This is one of the most exciting roles we've seen in a while. 

👟 How Vessi boosted revenue 46% just by properly measuring viewthrough conversions. Some guidance on Clicks + Deterministic Views, Northbeam's newest attribution model. 

📺 WEBINAR: Join us after BFCM to see what worked, explore performance, and prepare for the future. Looking at everything from ROAS to MER across channels. 

🔥 VIDEO: How Caden Lane built a brand from the heart. Hot takes with our CEO Austin. 

‼️ Are you an advertiser that wants access to Axon? Follow this link and use the referral code: S1DFERDR8L. Book time for a call with their team at this link to get ad credits. 

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