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In this issue: forecasting the storm that threatens the U.S. economy. 🌪️

The war yet to come

Every marketer reading this newsletter must accept this fact: ominous macroeconomic trends are going to have a negative impact on your ad performance that you cannot control.

Put simply, when people feel like times are bad, they buy less stuff. And there's not much you can do to change their minds. 

What you can do is prepare for the storm. This week's data demonstrates that many Northbeam brands are shifting budget around in anticipation, throwing certain auctions into turmoil. Google and Applovin are stealing share of wallet from TikTok and YouTube. CPMs are skyrocketing all over the place. CAC is in the red. How should you respond?

Here's my advice for thriving through hard times as a marketer:

1. Adjust your goals and targets. Your historical best ads are probably underperforming right now. Whatever your growth targets are for 2025, lower them. Lower them by half or more - does your business survive? What if you have a flat year of revenue? Grapple with your own hubris and accept that survival is paramount above growth. 

2. Prioritize efficiency. Certain products never really breaking even? Sell them all, then don't get any more inventory. Stuff sitting in the warehouse, racking up storage fees? Move it at break-even prices to get that expense off your books. The name of the game is simplified, streamlined efficient use of cash. Because cash is what's going to dry up this year. What's burning your cash without immediate returns? Delayed returns aren't good enough. 

3. Shrink to grow profitably. Maybe you're running a huge ad budget because it's the only way to bring in acceptable revenue numbers. But if you're burning in the red already, reduced consumer confidence will only make this performance worse. What if you shrunk the scale and accepted a third of that revenue, but the shrinking spend actually gave you profitable days?

These are three points I've learned watching the best of the best in ecomm. Watch our full webinar on how to thrive in economic uncertainty. We'll be sharing our tips and tricks here every week as the economy evolves. 

🚢 Logistics and agency experts weigh on on how to thrive in uncertain economic conditions. Want us to do more of these? We can. 

🎉 Amazon Prime Day is a four-day event this year. When will it become a federal holiday? 

🌱 How home-hydroponic brand Gardyn slashed their Meta spend by 70% while maintaining equal revenue. A masterclass. 

🚨 JOB: Senior Director of Digital Marketing // P.F. Chang's // Remote: includes a prepaid meal card benefit! 

🚨 JOB: Head of Growth Marketing // Intro // Los Angeles: Experts at your fingertips. Can you sell it?

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