This week's data:
So begins the march towards ad auction hell: BFCM. Ad auction costs are up across all metrics, and conversion metrics haven't caught up yet. Although lots of people are quick to claim that it "feels" like consumer spending is down, this is not true. People love to post bad vibes to Linkedin and X to try and distract you or drum up engagement (myself included.) In Beyoncé we trust, all others must bring data.
Consumer spending is actually rising in Q2, giving us the best Q2 since 2021. Not to mention that spending always picks up during holidays after election years. This is setting us up for an epic Q4, but a weird one given the impact of political ad spending. Don't let the ecomm gurus online convince you that this is going to be a "bad Q4" just because their individual agencies or businesses aren't doing well. The data suggests this could be a great year for mindful, demure marketers who stay on task.
The rundown:
- The vast majority of political ad spend happens in the month prior to the election. Bottom of funnel, so to speak. Expect prices to be higher up to Election Day in early November, then drop off sharply, leaving an opening. Take advantage.
- After that, consumer spending is expected to skyrocket. Lots of people will be online engaging in discourse. Screentime will be up, which means CPMs will be down and CTRs up. Get on it.
- Your normal BFCM awareness and conversion campaign schedule might be different. I suspect your top of funnel will feel more expensive than ever, but once you flip on bottom of funnel on November 8, those conversions will feel cheaper than ever.
When I look at Meta's constantly-increasing CPMs over the last two years, this is what I feel. Stay tuned as we track this data leading up to the big day.
